It’s hard to say, but setting aside the obvious bigotry of the Florida pastor, it feels like he lost, at least here in North America. I say that because the stunt seems to have stirred up an overdue debate that almost universally ended up on the side of acceptance of other peoples beliefs. While “tolerance” of Muslims is running low in the West right now, when faced with such a clear case of intolerance, it’s pretty hard to be on that side.
However, I suspect the impression many people in the rest of the world were left with would be closer to “Americans are burning Qur’ans” without all the nuanced debate seen here on call-in shows, etc, that showed how the average person felt. In that sense, I think the pastor may have won, given his goal seems to be to fan the flames of tension that exist right now.